The Basics Of Horse Race Handicapping
Sports gambling is a popular pursuit because everyone understands the basics of how teams win and lose and why. Horses, meanwhile, are an entirely different animal”no pun intended. It is a complex discipline unto itself, and a sound background in handicapping sports doesn’t insure success, or even mediocrity in handicapping the ponies. In fact, the history of sports betting is replete with successful gamblers that had a weakness for horse betting, with an emphasis on the word weakness. Most notable, perhaps, is the former resident handicapper at CBS, Jimmy The Greek Snyder. The story goes that The Greek was a first rate sports handicapper, but he couldn’t pick the winner of a one horse race when playing the ponies. The bad news for The Greek is that he enjoyed playing the ponies nonetheless, and often frittered away the money he won at the other end of the sportsbook.
Below are some very basic concepts that you need to know to enjoy a day at the horse track. This information doesn’t even scratch the surface of what you’ll need to know if your goal is to become a serious horse betting devotee. If that is the case, you’re best advised to check out one of the many theoretical books devoted to the subject.
Reading in Fundamental: The first thing you should do when you arrive at the horse track is to purchase a track program and a copy of the Daily Racing Form. The Daily Racing Form (or DRF for short) is the Wall Street Journal of the horse handicapping set. The track program will offer much of the same information about the specific track, but is frequently in a more user friendly format than the often arcane DRF. The basic stats you’ll find in these publications are the names of the horses, jockeys and trainers, the morning line odds, and the types of bets available for each race. You’ll also have past performance charts, which are the bread and butter of serious horse handicappers. These charts reveal a lot about a horse and what they’ve done on the racetrack, including its record, where it ran, the quality of competition it ran against, and what position the horse was in at various points in the race. Most tracks have customer service types that are helpful in clearing up anything you don’t understand. While asking the personnel in a sports book who they like isn’t a wise idea, its OK at the track for a reason well now discuss”you’re not playing against them.
You’re not playing against the house: One thing to keep in mind when playing the horses that is drastically different from sports betting is that you’re not playing against ‘the house’, you’re playing against other betters. The track just accepts and pays bets, taking out a cut (called the ‘takeout’) for their services. The track odds are determined by the money bet on each horse. Long odds on a horse doesn’t necessarily indicate a ‘bad horse’ but just one that for whatever reason isn’t attracting bettor interest.
The odds in the newspaper are known as the ‘morning odds’ and are essentially educated opinions. They’re not much different than ‘overnight lines’ in sports betting. They can serve a function for handicapping, but often will not reflect what will transpire when the actual betting begins.
The Basics of Handicapping: Even expert handicappers approach the sport differently and, like his sports gambling counterpart, may place greater emphasis on the importance of certain data than other handicappers. Some handicappers place a great deal of weight on a horses past performances, including the quality of opposition hes run against. Others place greater value on recent workouts, and still others go to the paddock to eyeball the horses and try to determine which ones are ready to run.
Once a handicapper gets an idea what will happen in the race, he has to factor the available odds into the proposition. A favorite may be an unattractive wagering prospect due to a prohibitively high price, while a long shot may be a good wagering value based on a high potential payback. It all boils down to wagering value, which is simply a matter of doing a math. Teaching the youth of America solid math skills is crucial for no other reason than to help them gamble effectively and profitably.
Horses and Trainers: Some handicappers place a great deal of importance on the horses breeding lineage”the quality of his parents and grandparents “as an indication to his performance potential. This may be particularly important early in a horses career, but after a half dozen or so races what hes done on the track becomes more important than his pedigree. Trainers, like Bob Baffertt, can also be an important consideration much in the same way that coaching can play an important role in sports wagering.
The horse’s jockey: Jockeys are free agents, meaning that they get paid on their performance. In theory, this means that they’ll do their utmost to win in every given race. While there are a few exceptions, many serious horse handicappers downplay the importance of the jockey. Assuming the horse’s ‘mount’ is competent, there are much more salient factors to consider when handicapping a race than the jockey.
Dedication and Discipline: There’s not a set formula for successful horse handicapping, so try different things and find what works for you. And, as always, don’t go overboard with the money you wager and particularly until you get a feel for what you’re doing. If you’re interested in learning more, check out the Daily Racing Form website.
Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer experienced in travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.
